Election 2019: Follow the results on Northern Quota

Politics | 9th December 2019

By Liz Hannaford

Labour heartlands of Greater Manchester could see some major upsets on election night
In leave-voting areas north of Manchester, Brexit is causing many people to rethink party loyalties
The Northern Quota will be with you through the night from close of polls at 10pm on Thursday, 12 December

This is an election in which many of the traditional loyalties and voting patterns seem to be flying out of the window, so there will be plenty to keep our NQ reporting team busy during our overnight coverage of the results.

Jonathan Rodwell, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Manchester Metropolitan University, believes Thursday’s election is as significant as the 1979 vote that brought Margaret Thatcher to power: “We are reaching the point when the current consensus of Thatcher and neo-liberalism is under great strain.”

Leave-voting constituencies in Labour heartlands north of Manchester

Labour is fighting to stay in power in constituencies that have been considered to be safe seats for decades. Look out for results from the Bolton and Bury constituencies in particular.

Meanwhile, Tory seats in the more affluent, remain-voting parts of the region are under threat from Lib Dems.

Support for the Brexit Party seems to be dwindling but which of the main parties will gain?

What effect will the youth vote have?

The most accurate predictor of voting intentions these days is age with young voters overwhelmingly supporting Labour in the 2017 election, according to YouGov. This is offset by traditionally low turnout amongst younger people. Older people are more likely to vote than younger people. In 2017, 59% of 20- to 24-year-olds voted, compared with 77% of 60- to 69-year-olds.

But could that change in 2019? About two-thirds of the more than three million people who registered to vote between the election being called and the registration deadline were under the age of 35. More than a million of them under 25.

With the big student population in Manchester and Salford, there are some constituencies with above average proportions of 18-25 year olds and, unsurprisingly, big Labour majorities. So will students in those areas choose to vote in their home constituencies where their votes might have more impact on the result?

Record number of female candidates standing

Women make up about a third of the candidates standing in this election across the country. Labour has become the first major political party to field more female candidates than male. This is the situation in Greater Manchester.

NQ will be bringing you live updates throughout the night here on the main website with reporters at the key counts around our region filing us the latest results and interviews with winners and losers. You can also follow our coverage on Twitter and Instagram.